Census 2010 – More Data Please

Soon we will all receive the decennial census forms to complete.  Completing this census form and returning it is vitally important.   This years census form is being promoted as the “shortest” form ever by the Census Bureau.  Hopefully it means a better return.

However, the Decennial Census is to be supported by data that is being collected as part of the “American Community Survey.”  A more detailed look at America that is being conducted annually.  The American Community Survey (ACS) is supposed to provide us with the information that is not being collected by the April 1 count, the data usually included in both the short and long forms of the ten year census.

Here’s the rub.  The only city in Massachusetts with ACS data is Boston.  Barnstable County is one of several Massachusetts Counties with no data available.  What it means is that, with the reduction in questions on the short form, and the elimination of the long form,  less data is being collected and the Town of Dennis, and all of Barnstable County is being short-changed.

The Census if far more important that just the count.  In the past the Census collected income, age of housing, journey to work and lots of additional, important, information.  As we move forward from Census 2010, we will be needing to look for new sources of data to make up for the short-comings of Census 2010.

This actually makes it even more important you return your Census form on April 1st as we will need that base count of population to be able to properly extrapolate other data sources to get a good picture of the town.

More on Population Migration

Recently I added three posts on population migration based upon data from the United States Internal Revenue Service.  This data provides an interesting example of a report I was also reading about population changes on the New Geography website, When Granny Comes Marching Home Again… Multi-Generational Housing.

The IRS data suggests that Barnstable County experiences about a 7.3% annual population change rate.  This being the total number of people moving into or out of an area on an annual basis.  This is actually quite low, and a lot lower than I would have guessed.  The “Granny” article noted:

This changing dynamic will alter movement of Americans, which has now been slowing down for a generation. In 1970, nearly 20 percent of Americans changed their place of residence every year. But by 2004, that figure had dropped to 14 percent, the lowest level since 1950.

This was consistent with much that I was learning in that time period.  People were actually expected to move once every five years.  At 7.3% annual change rate people are changing homes once every 13.8 years.  A real slowing of population movement in Barnstable County.

This opens up many questions.  Questions that the 2010 Census will hopefully answer.  Who is moving?  What is the age groups that are moving?  And, more importantly, who is staying put?

The census will hopefully help us gauge or long term residents.

Return of The Five and Dime

I remember as a child in Holyoke walking to Main Street to go to the Five and Dime.  It was, to a child, an amazing place.  Looking back on it the toys were quite simple, jacks, rubber balls, etc.  But they provided many necessaries as well.

Reading about them now, you find many of the comments about the old Woolworth’s stores you hear today about other low end retailers.  One thing though, that should not be overlooked, was the drawing power of these stores.  And, on Main Street, they provided customers to other stores as you could not always find what you wanted in the Five and Dime – after all not everything could be sold for just ten cents.

What does this have to do with Economic Development in Dennis?  Dennisport is soon to host the modern version of the Five and Dime – a Dollartree Store.  The Dollartree Store and the property owners will have invested nearly a million dollars into the former A&P Supermarket site by the time the store opens.  This is quite the investment on Main Street, Dennisport, especially given everything will be priced at one dollar.

As with the Five and Dime’s you will not be able to find everything for a buck, the presence of the Dollartree on Main Street should add customers to all the local businesses.

FHA Condo Rules – Here We Go Again

I have posted twice on this subject before, in September and November.  Clearly based upon this news story from the Associated Press, Condo rules could shut out buyers, hit builders, FHA must be having a difficult time making a decision and sticking with it.

This issue of lending practices for Condominium Projects deals a very significant blow to some affordable housing programs.  In Dennis we have several projects that could be adversely affected as larger and larger shares of units must be sold prior to FHA committing loans for a project.  In fact, given the 30% and 50% commitment figures, it would appear that affordable housing projects will see the affordable units back-loaded.  This would make them the last units constructed, or at least part of the second half of construction, as people qualifying for affordable for-sale housing will be kept out of the project without the FHA loans.  Most affordable housing by-laws work from the opposite angle, wanting a proportional number of affordable and market rate housing units made available during project construction.

The FHA proposal lends itself as well to abuse – proposing a project of 50 units, building the first 25 and selling them all as market rate units to meet the FHA lending guidelines, then walking away from the project.  This FHA policy will clearly many unknown affordable housing impacts.

County Migration Patterns – Net Impacts

Over the past two days I have posted information on County Migration Patterns for people moving to the Cape and those leaving the Cape.  This post will wrap up this discussion with a look at the net impacts of this migration.

This post explores, based upon tax returns and claimed exemptions, the net impacts of the migration of people to and from Barnstable County based upon IRS tax information.  Here are a few interesting pieces of information:

Between 2004 and 2008:

• The County experienced a net loss of 2,673 people leaving the Cape;
• Even with this loss of population, the net effect was an increase in total gross income of almost $181 million, meaning that those arriving on the Cape had greater incomes and spending abilities than those leaving the Cape;
• Residents relocating to the Cape from within Massachusetts brought in a more total gross income than was taken off the Cape to other Massachusetts communities resulting in an instate net increase in income brought to the Cape of over $272 million;
• Conversely, residents relocating between the Cape and locations outside the state of Massachusetts resulted in a net loss in total net income of almost $98 million;
• The Cape gained population through relocation involving other Massachusetts Counties with a gain of 2,303 people;
• The Cape lost population through relocation involving communities outside of Massachusetts with a loss of 5,186 people;
• The three Massachusetts Counties with the largest net increase in migration to the Cape are Middlesex County (864 people), Norfolk County (810 people) and Worcester County (608 people);
• The three Non-Massachusetts Counties with the largest net increase in migration to the Cape are Fairfield County, CT (202 people), Hartford County, CT (152 people) and Westchester County, NY (145 people);
• The Cape lost population to Hampshire County (7 people), Franklin county (51 people), Suffolk County (206 people), and Plymouth County (395 people) inside Massachusetts;
• Plymouth County was the largest net migration recipient of population from the Cape; and
• The top three Non-Massachusetts Counties to gain population from the Cape were Lee County, FL (345 people), Collier County, FL (309 people) and Sarasota County, FL (261 people).

This IRS Data can be found here: SOI Tax Stats Migration Data.

County Migration Patterns – Leaving Cape Cod

Yesterday I posted information on County Migration Patterns for people moving to the Cape.  Today, I am providing information on where people go when they leave our peninsula.

This post explores, based upon tax returns and claimed exemptions, the out-migration of people leaving Barnstable County.  Here are a few interesting pieces of information:

Between 2004 and 2008:

• 33,406 people left to the Cape;
• These departing residents had an adjusted average gross per capita income of $35,486;
• Cape residents in general have an adjusted average gross per capita income of $33,037;
• Over half the people who moved from the Cape, 19,974, left Massachusetts;
• Residents relocating within Massachusetts had a higher average gross per capita income ($35,835) than those who moved left the state ($35,649);
• When leaving the Cape, the largest number of people relocated to Plymouth County, MA (3,797) than from any where else in the country;
• The highest per capita average incomes were reported by people relocating to Collier County, FL ($108,362)
• Three of the top five per capita average incomes for in departing residents were heading to Florida (Collier County, Indian River County [$101,220] and Palm Beach County [$70,550]); one in New Jersey (Ocean County [$83,429]) and one in South Carolina (Charleston County [$68,563]);
• The top three locations within Massachusetts for people to move to from the Cape are, Plymouth County, Middlesex County (2,012), and Norfolk County (1,625);
• The top three locations outside of Massachusetts for people from the Cape to move to are Collier County, FL (500); Lee County, FL (490) and Palm Beach County, FL (473);
• Barnstable County non-migrant taxpayers, have 1.92 exemptions (surrogate for people) per tax return (surrogate for family recognizing that some families file two returns);
• People Leaving the Cape have only 1.56 exemptions per tax return; and
• People moving to El Paso County, Colorado have the largest number of people per tax return (2.45), followed by Osceola County, Florida (2.40), and Wake County, North Carolina (2.33).

Next, I will look at the IRS Net Migration Data.

County Migration Patterns – In Migration

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is a wealth of data.  The more I explore their site, the more opportunities for updating the Local Comprehensive Plan I find.  Some data is at the local level, and some is at the county.  Obviously some data cannot go below the county level to protect individual privacy.  However, we can glean important information from the county data.

This post explores, based upon tax returns and claimed exemptions, the migration of people into Barnstable County.  Here are a few interesting pieces of information:

Between 2004 and 2008:

• 30,733 people moved to the Cape;
• These new residents had an adjusted average gross per capita income of $44,548;
• Cape residents in general have an adjusted average gross per capita income of $33,037;
• Over half the people who moved to the Cape, 15,142, came from within Massachusetts;
• New residents from within Massachusetts had a higher average gross per capita income ($48,393) than those who moved from elsewhere ($41,528);
• More people moved to the Cape from Plymouth County, MA (3,402) than from any where else in the country;
• The highest per capita average incomes were reported by people relocating from Hartford County, CT ($153,084)
• Three of the top five per capita average incomes for in migrants were reported for people relocating from Connecticut, (Hartford County, Fairfield County [$122,524] and Tolland County [$121,587]); one is from New Jersey (Bergen County [$129,093]) and one from Pennsylvania (Chester County [$129,167]);
• The top three locations within Massachusetts for people to have moved to the Cape are, Plymouth County, Middlesex County (2,876), and Norfolk County (2,435);
• The top three locations outside of Massachusetts for people to have moved to the Cape are Providence County, RI (405); Hartford County, CT (395) and Fairfield County,  CT (349);
• Barnstable County non-migrant taxpayers, have 1.92 exemptions (surrogate for people) per tax return (surrogate for family recognizing that some families file two returns);
• People moving to the Cape have only 1.62 exemptions per tax return – equating quite likely to smaller family sizes; and
• People moving from Essex County New Jersey have the largest number of people per tax return (2.37), followed by Monmouth County New Jersey (1.92), and Hillsborough County, Florida (1.91).

Next, I will look at the IRS Migration Data on where people from Barnstable County are heading.

2007 County Business Patterns Preliminary Dennis Data

The US Census Bureau has released some data from the 2007 County Business Patterns.  At present we have access to the total number of employers, employees and total payroll data.  The following provides a time line comparison for Dennis for 1997, 2002 and 2007.

First the Total Number of Businesses in Dennis according to the U.S Census Bureau:

1997	2002	2007
371	430	557

Businesses grew by 50% over the past decade, and 43% over the past five years.  The growth in businesses in Dennis over the past five years is significantly higher than it was during the first five years of the data collection decade (16% between 1997 and 2002).

The Total Number of People Employed In Dennis

1997	2002	2007
2,006	2,334	3,892

Employment grew faster than the number of businesses, with growth in employment in the Dennis market growing by 94% from 1997 to 2007.  This represents a strong growth for all businesses, new and old, as represented in the table below which illustrates  that the number of employees per business establishment jumped from 5.4 employees to 7.o employees for the decade, with all the growth really occurring in the last five years.

Employees Per Business Establishment

1997	2002	2007
5.4	5.4	7.0

Total Annual Payroll in Dennis

1997	2002	2007
$       35,409,000	$     55,478,000	$     126,068,000

Payroll growth in Dennis was even stronger than employment growth, over the past decade total payroll grew by 256%, with most of this growth also occurring in the past five years (163% versus 57% for the first five years of the decade).

Payroll Per Employee in Dennis

1997	2002	2007
$     17,652	$    23,769	$       32,392

Ultimately the growth in total payroll, which grew faster than total employment illustrates an increase in salaries for the workers of Dennis, with the average salary growing by 84% for the past decade.

Updated IRS Income Data

The data below is provided by the IRS.  The data is based upon the number or returns filed (single filers and joint filers, thus it may not be an accurate measure of actual household income as married filing individually will show as two separate filings).  Previously I had provided a comparison of 2001 to 2005 data.  The data provided below continues the basis for measuring income over time.  The data illustrates a significant drop in income.  With a drop of 11.6% in reported income in Dennis between 2005 and 2006.  In the same year Brewster reported income dropped 15.2%, Harwich by 13.8% and Yarmouth’s by 9.6%.  Dennis and Yarmouth started from lower income levels, thus the lower percentage drops than in Harwich and Brewster.

Another, disturbing picture is the dichotomy in income reported with over 15% of those reporting income having income of less than $10,000.  These households, 1,484 in Dennis, are earning below the area’s poverty level.

Zip code	City or town	Number of returns, 2005	Average income, 2005	Number of returns, 2006	Average income, 2006	% Below $10,000 income
02638	Dennis	1,868	$62,916	1,843	$53,097	17.0%
02639	Dennis (Dennis Port)	1,740	$35,866	1,736	$29,712	18.0%
02641	Dennis (East Dennis)	908	$73,036	1,013	$63,206	14.6%%
02660	Dennis (South Dennis)	3,128	$47,245	2,948	$43,956	18.2%
02670	Dennis (West Dennis)	892	$55,074	946	$48,894	18.3%
	Dennis Total	8,536	$51,916	8,486	$45,876	17.5%
02631	Brewster	4,989	$59,090	4,995	$50,134	17.3%
02645	Harwich	4,878	$49,276	4,671	$43,479	16.7%
02646	Harwich (Harwich Port)	1,104	$73,486	1,139	$54,903	15.4%
02661	Harwich (South Harwich)	215	$52,735	271	$45,052	12.9%
02671	Harwich (West Harwich)	629	$55,647	621	$53,795	16.6%
	Harwich Total	6,826	$53,888	6,702	$46,440	16.3%
02664	Yarmouth (South Yarmouth)	5,166	$46,354	5,235	$41,690	15.7%
02673	Yarmouth (West Yarmouth)	4,399	$41,506	4,332	$36,958	17.0%
02675	Yarmouth (Yarmouth Port)	3,492	$67,181	3,554	$61,430	15.4%
	Yarmouth Total	13,057	$50,291	13,121	$45,475	16.0%

New Tax Analysis

I saw an article in the Concord Monitor about taxation in relation to income.  I had not seen any similar discussion in any of the Massachusetts newspapers, so I thought I would check out the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy and see how Massachusetts fared.  It turns out that we are equally, if not more greatly skewed to the lower levels of the income scale paying a greater percentage of income in taxes than NH.  Here are a few of the numbers:

• The lowest 20% of earned income (less than $20,000 per year) pay 10.1% of their income in taxes.
• The second 20% (income of $20,000 to $41,000) also pay 10.1% of their income in various taxes.
• The upper 1% of income (income $683,000 or more) pay only 4.8% of their income in taxes.

The analysis points out that our state tax system is quite regressive in that we use a single rate tax system (one pays the same percentage of income in taxes to the state regardless of earning level) and the state does not provide any elderly tax relief for property taxes.

The study also illustrates that the composition of state tax revenues has not changed dramatically in the past decade.  In comparing 1997 and 2007 data, the analysis showed that 31% of tax revenue in the state is in the form of income taxes and 25% in property taxes in both years.

You can see this analysis here:  Massachusetts Fact Sheet