Preparing For The Recovery

The Chicago Tribune reported this week that 2010 could be when the commercial economy hits bottom.  Others have reported that the commercial sector may not bottom out for a few more years.

These articles suggest that we are all in for more hard times.  So far, we have weathered the storm.  We even have had some new investments.  We are beginning to see small signs of life.  A number of new businesses have opened through-out town.

Whenever the recovery finally arrives, we need to have all our ducks in a row to be ready to take advantage of it.  We need to continue to work on initiatives to promote appropriate jobs for Dennis residents.  Efforts, such as those by the Dennisport Revitalization Committee, need to be studied and pursued.

The economy will recover.  Dennis will be ready.

Recapturing “Olde Cape Cod”

It has been quite the weekend. About 200 survey responses (even though Polldaddy was supposed to shut it down at 100). Town year-round residents as well as the seasonal tenants of the cottage colonies and RV parks all are very supportive of our taking a step back in time and re-thinking these seasonal resorts. The outpouring of comments, from town historic preservationists to people with no ties what-so-ever will be used to shape what-ever we do in this area.

I will tabulate the survey results tomorrow and post the results.

I know this is a very personal issue to many. Family ties to these areas run deep. Given current zoning does less to protect this area than even what the Economic Development Committee was contemplating, we will need to work on zoning that protects what people have stated they like about this area. The Board of Health will need to be engaged by the residents and owners to address DEP’s issues. We will need to identify strategies to protect/restore the dune system south of Old Wharf Road. We will need to develop standards that will allow/promote reinvestment in these structures.

Everyone needs to be aware that Camper’s Haven and Chase’s Ocean Grove lie in an area that FEMA considers at risk. While it has not expanded the flood zone, yet, they believe it is inevitable that changes will occur that will affect this area in the future.

This planning effort has led to many personal attacks. A really shoot the messenger weekend. I am sure we can all press ahead and develop a seasonal “olde Cape Cod” resort district we can all be proud of.

I will raise this issue Monday night with the Planning Board and on th 19th at the Economic Development Committee.

Cottage Colony and RV Park Poll

The Polldaddy Survey is limited to 100 responses.  We have now exceeded that limit.

Please provide your answers to the following poll instead – an unlimited number of responses (1 per user however) are available for polls.

Cottage Colony and RV Park Poll

While the poll will not provide the type of demographic data the survey collected, it will help us gauge public opinion.

Tell Us What You Think About The Future Of Cottage Colonies and RV Parks on Old Wharf Road

I have received many comments and questions about the area along Old Wharf Road relative to the current status and future of the cottage colonies and RV Parks in this area.  Take the survey below and let and let us know what you think.

Cottage Colony and RV Park Survey Link

If this survey has hit its 100 response limit for the month, please respond to the poll at this link

Economic Development Committee to Discuss Hotel Resort Zoning Proposal

The Dennis Economic Development Committee will be continuing its efforts to explore the Hotel Resort Zoning Proposal it has been working on for the past two years.  The next meeting will be held on Thursday November 19, 2009 at 9 am. The meeting will be held in the Downstairs Large Conference Room. The discussion will on the “Central Area Hotel Resort” portion of the Hotel Resort By-law.

Central Area Hotel Resort Area

This section of the proposal is the Old Wharf Road area that has generated significant discussion. By focusing on this area we will be able to fully explain the proposal, the actual extent of changes being discussed for this area, and the ramifications (if any) to the existing non-conforming uses in the area.

This meeting will be in the Large Conference Room to accommodate cottage colony tenants should they be able to attend. It will also allow us to have the meeting broadcast live and videotaped for later rebroadcast.

People who are out of town and not able to attend, will be able to watch the meeting live on their home computers at the following web address:

http://www.town.dennis.ma.us/channl18.htm

Hopefully this will be an engaging discussion about the future direction for this area. People should be aware that, about the only thing “cast in stone” is the existing Resort Residential Zoning that was put into place in 1973, and would remain in place should we not be able to determine how to improve the zoning for this area.

The Dennisport Design Charrette has even raised the possibility that in the Hotel Resort rezoning, that a niche be carved out that may provide some zoning status for cottages as part of the Hotel Resort efforts. I am expecting that their recommendations will provide us with some ideas that would allow an economical mix of uses and building types.

I will be posting a notice of this meeting on the Dennis Planning Department Blog as well.

An Active Community, A Well Rounded Town

Here is an article on Lisle, Illinois.  It is larger than Dennis, it has more large employers than we do, but it provides some interesting comparisons as we think about the future of the town and where we want to be.

The article points out the benefits of a careful balance.  Commercial uses are a vital part of the town.  These commercial areas have been modified over the years to ensure that the pedestrian is as important as the automobile.  The commercial areas also appear to include and be bordered by some higher density housing.  As the article states “enriched with a diverse array of homes and businesses.”  Diversity in living arrangements and employment opportunities seem well balanced.

The article points out that Lisle is a place where they younger generation returns to to raise their family.  Housing and activities appear to be available to attract families as well as active singles.  The point is also well stated that the community is “close to” certain major cities, but you are not living there.

We have a lot of this present in Dennis.  We also are missing much of this.  We are close to Boston and Providence.  But have we ever stated in marketing the town, “come to our beaches and the peace and quiet of Cape Cod, and take in a Red Sox Game at Fenway?”  We need to tie ourselves to the region and point out that we also offer an escape from the hustle and bustle of the city.  Perhaps our hotels could tie in with a local limousine company to offer such packages – in London most hotels can help you get theater tickets for instance.

As we look at our villages, and this was prevalent in the discussions at the design charrette, we need to think about what attracts various generations to choose where to live.  We may never compare with living in Kendall Square for a college age student.  But we could offer more than we do.  We lack many services needed by young families – even when many studies find that mixing child care and seniors can provide benefits to both age groups.

For the past decade we have spend a lot of time thinking “outside the box” on planning issues.  We have been recognized for much of this thinking.    We have many challenges ahead of ourselves to ensure that Dennis remains, or regains is position as, an active, well rounded town.

Recession Impacts

The following is an article from the Chicago Sun Times.

Census: Recession had sweeping impact on US life

The article confirms much that we all probably know.  People are having to make difficult choices.  As earnings dropped and cost of living climbed, people had to find other ways to travel (there have been many stories about how the highest transit ridership figures were experienced last winter).  The economy forced many people to stay put.  In years past, when one region had an economic downturn, people would head for greener (and warmer) pastures.  Florida and California have clearly experienced as bad an economy as any of us.  And, the message has gotten out loud and clear that these regions do not have any excess jobs available.  In addition, the housing market grew so soft, that people who may have been interested in trying their luck in another region could not do it as they were tied into housing they could not sell.

An interesting statistic is the one that notes there was an increase in the percentage of people reporting they have never been married.  It appears that this has a number of implications for housing.  First, there is some suggestion that, as the economy soured, more people chose to stay home with their parents as the only means of having a stable living arrangement, other stayed in school longer.  This suggests that there could be pent up demand for housing as the economy starts to recover.  But, what type of housing?  Normally, these people would have fed the market for smaller rentals as they started out in life.  It is possible that this demand could remain when the economy turns around.  However, it may be even more likely that many will seek housing only when they are more financially secure and could jump right into home-ownership.  If they learn any lessons from this past economic downturn, they might also look at home-ownership as a life-long investment, and not a short-term strategy where they might out-grow the first home they buy.  It will be interesting to see h0w things shake out.

I will continue to watch to see if any more localized data becomes available.  As of yet, none of this interim census data has included Barnstable County.

Housing Affordability

Housing is getting even less affordable  Falling prices haven’t helped

The above article raised my interest.  A year ago as we were reviewing the Summer Street project the question was raised as to why we needed to continue creating affordable housing given the decline of the housing market.  I tried to explain how the recession was affecting those at the lower levels of the economy as much as (if not more so) those who had invested heavily in the stock market.  The article points that even with the number of housing foreclosures and falling housing prices, income has fallen faster.  It points out, once again, the need to take care of the housing needs of those for whom the housing market remains out of reach.

Dennis, Open All Year Long

Poverty Data

I saw these two, among several other articles on the consequences of the recession and thought I would share them, along with some information that I have not yet seen reported anywhere.

Last Year’s Poverty Rate Was Highest in 12 Years

Poverty hits 1 in 8 Americans

As the articles illustrate, the recession has led to an increase in the number of people in poverty, and an actual relative decrease in income levels.  It is actually shocking to see that the purchasing power of the average American is below where it was a decade ago.  Local data is not yet available for this information, however state data is.  Here are some data for state poverty levels:

	United States		Massachusetts
	2008	2007	2008	2007
All People	13.2%	12.5%	11.3%	11.2%
Under 18	19.0%	18.0%	17.1%	17.1%
School age children	17.4%	16.5%	18.1%	15.0%
65 and over	9.7%	9.7%	9.3%	10.3%

One thing that the poverty numbers do not relate, is the difference between regions.  While a quick review of the table suggests that Massachusetts is doing better than the country in general, the cost of living in Massachusetts is higher than many areas of the country.  As such, these percentages are quite misleading.  The poverty line is not adjusted by regions.  The national poverty line is $10,991 for an individual and $22,025 for a family of four.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that New England, California, Hawaii and Alaska have the highest costs of living.  Our overall cost of living, in Massachusetts in 2008, was 27.6% higher than the national average.  Housing costs were 78.9% higher.

The cost of living index would suggest that the poverty level should be set at $14,024 for an individual and $28,104 for a family of four.  These levels would vastly increase the poverty percentages in the state, and similarly in Dennis.  It likely suggests that our real poverty levels are as high as 14.4% for all people, 11.9% for those over 65 and 23.1% for school age children.  A pretty scary economic situation.

The poverty level is also significantly below the income level of those qualifying for affordable housing.  Given the poverty levels exceed 10%, suggests that the housing levels targeted in Chapter 40B are too low, and the town needs to be sure that we continue to strive to increase affordable housing for all income sectors.